Education
How Prediction Markets Work
- 12 dated explainers
- As of Sep 2026
- Not a pick
- Five-note reading path
Illustrative cents only · comparison listing · methodology
Featured reading path
Five notes, in order
That’s the order the confusion usually arrives in. Read them in sequence if you’re new.
- 1September 17, 2026 · 9 min
Pricing
How Prediction Market Prices Work (Cents and $0–$1 Shares)
Pay sixty-two cents. If you’re right, you usually get a dollar back before fees. If you’re wrong, you get nothing. That’s the whole machine.
Read article - 2October 8, 2026 · 9 min
Vs sportsbooks
Event Contracts Vs Sportsbooks: Why the Maps Don’t Always Match
New Jersey has a legal book. FanDuel Predicts does not list New Jersey for sports contracts.
Read article - 3September 17, 2026 · 8 min
State availability
How to Read Our State Availability Pages
What a state guide contains, and how labels work.
Read article - 4October 27, 2026 · 9 min
Platform types
Three Platform Types: Regulated, Research, State-Licensed
Kalshi is not Robinhood. PredictIt is not Sporttrade. Same cents format.
Read article - 5September 17, 2026 · 9 min
Risk
What Can Go Wrong: Fees, Geofences, and Resolution
You can lose the cents you paid. The app can block you. The rule can fail a contract that the headline passed. Read risk before the sample quote.
Read article
Desks
Browse by subject
Pricing, sportsbooks, states, platform types, risk. Each card carries a date and a few minutes. The dek is the argument, not a teaser.
Pricing
What 62¢ actually costs — and why the rule text still matters more.
Pricing
How Prediction Market Prices Work (Cents and $0–$1 Shares)
Pay sixty-two cents. If you’re right, you usually get a dollar back before fees. If you’re wrong, you get nothing. That’s the whole machine.
Read articlePricing
Cents, Dollars, and Implied Probability
Why a 54¢ Yes is a $0.54 contract first — and only a 54% reading aid second.
Read articlePricing
The Resolution Text Is the Contract
Two 47¢ prices are not comparable if the source, clock, or wording differs. Read the rule before the price.
Read articleVs sportsbooks
Dated explainers — none of them is a pick.
Vs sportsbooks
Event Contracts Vs Sportsbooks: Why the Maps Don’t Always Match
New Jersey has a legal book. FanDuel Predicts does not list New Jersey for sports contracts.
Read articleVs sportsbooks
Sportsbook Maps Are Not Prediction Maps
FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions do not inherit the sportsbook footprint. Read the product, then the state note, then the in-app screen.
Read articleState availability
How to read the colors without trusting them too much.
State availability
How to Read Our State Availability Pages
What a state guide contains, and how labels work.
Read articleState availability
Available, Restricted, Check Status — What the Labels Mean
The four map colors, the finer notes underneath, and why “Available” is still not a fifty-product all-clear.
Read articleState availability
How We Date and Source Claims
As-of dates, public sources, and what happens when a note goes stale — the education-hub companion to the methodology page.
Read articlePlatform types
Kalshi is not Robinhood. PredictIt is not Sporttrade.
Platform types
Three Platform Types: Regulated, Research, State-Licensed
Kalshi is not Robinhood. PredictIt is not Sporttrade. Same cents format.
Read articlePlatform types
How to Read the Platforms Comparison Board
Platform type, settlement, cents pricing, and a dated access snapshot — plus the listing rules behind the comparison board.
Read articleRisk
The ticket can go to zero. So can our note, if the app moves.
Risk
What Can Go Wrong: Fees, Geofences, and Resolution
You can lose the cents you paid. The app can block you. The rule can fail a contract that the headline passed. Read risk before the sample quote.
Read articleRisk
This Site Does Not Place Trades
No wallet, no deposit, no picks, no partner codes. What this site will not become — and why that is the product.
Read articleNo side. We date the snapshot.
Sourced from public filings, operator terms, and official materials — not from a partner desk.
As of Sep 2026. View methodology