A 71¢ Yes that resolves No is worth zero. You didn’t “almost make twenty-nine cents.” You spent seventy-one. Fees come out of what’s left when you’re right. That’s the basic risk. We won’t soften it.
These are the ways a ticket — or a note on this site — goes wrong.
Price and fee risk
You can lose the premium. Spreads move between the screenshot and a fill. Fees come out of the dollar. Live fee cards belong to the venues — they change, and we don’t operate them.
Access risk
A geofence can block a state that looks green on a national blog. A product can be dark inside an app that already holds your brokerage or sportsbook balance. Relocation, a new device, or an app update can flip a yesterday yes into a no. Our state labels are dated snapshots for that reason.
Rule risk
The resolution text can fail a contract that a headline passed. Revisions to a jobs print, a certification delay, a landfall definition, a mention allow-list — those are contract risk, not “the market was wrong.” Read The resolution text is the contract before you treat two venues as substitutes.
Rail risk
A sports-branded vertical can be confused with a sportsbook ticket. A brokerage tab can be confused with cash equities. Mixing those up is how people fund the wrong product.
Information risk — including this site
Our notes go stale. We date them so you can see it. That’s the control. It isn’t a slogan.