Pay sixty-two cents. If the event happens, that share is usually worth a dollar before fees. If it doesn’t, it’s worth nothing. That’s a prediction-market price. People like to call it 62 percent. Fine — later. First, it’s money.
A championship Yes at 41¢ is forty-one cents. Not +144. A House-control contract at 54¢ is fifty-four cents. The subject changes. The unit doesn’t. We leave the moneyline conversion to the sportsbook.
Speaking in cents
Traders say “Kalshi has the race at 48¢.” That’s a $0.48 contract. Polymarket often shows the same idea on a 0–100 scale. Robinhood’s prediction products, where they exist, usually sit in the $0–$1 band.
We use cents everywhere so you can put a Kalshi row next to a Robinhood tab next to a sports-branded vertical and not lose the plot. You’re comparing a quote and a rule. You’re not looking at one shared license, and you’re not getting a promise that every app will take you.
Price first, probability second
Yes, 62¢ gets talked about as 62 percent. That’s a translation, not a weather forecast, and not a promise the thing happens 62 times out of 100. Spreads, fees, thin books, and a picky settlement rule all sit between the price and that story.
Read it as a price first. Then, if you want, as a probability. Don’t read it as our model. We don’t publish volume, open interest, or “smart money.” Those labels rot in an hour.
An illustrative ticket
Say a politics Yes sits at 71¢. That’s $0.71 today. If Yes is right, the share is usually worth a dollar before fees — twenty-nine cents of room, before the venue takes its cut. No, on books that list both legs, is the other side of the same dollar. This is a teaching ticket, not a live book, and not a recommendation.
Fees, spreads, and the dispute desk belong to Kalshi or Polymarket or whoever printed the quote. Not to this page.
What the number does not tell you
A price does not tell you whether you are eligible to trade. A national contract can price on a screenshot while a state geofence blocks the account. It does not tell you the resolution source. Two 71¢ prices are not the same contract if one settles on a certified election and the other settles on a cable chyron.
It also doesn’t tell you the fee. Those cards change, and we don’t run the venue. Check the operator before you fund anything. This site has no wallet and no deposit button anyway.