Prediction market court and regulator tracker
Court cases and federal rulemakings that decide where event contracts can be offered, each with its docket or document and the date we checked it. A request is not an order, and an order on sports contracts does not cover every market. This page is not legal advice.
Federal appeals
| Case | Court and docket | What the record shows | Latest entry we saw | Source and date checked |
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| KalshiEX LLC v. Martin (Maryland) | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, No. 25-1892 (from D. Md. No. 1:25-cv-01283) | Kalshi’s appeal against Maryland Lottery and Gaming officials. Argued May 7, 2026. No decision on the docket. | October 14, 2026: supplemental authorities filed by the Maryland officials. |
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| KalshiEX LLC v. Williams | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 26-1835 (from the Southern District of New York) | Kalshi’s appeal, docketed July 8, 2026. No decision on the docket. | September 28, 2026: appellees’ motion to file an oversized brief. |
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| Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-7504 (from N.D. Cal. No. 3:25-cv-06162) | On September 16, 2026, the court reversed the denial of a preliminary injunction because the tribes are likely to succeed in their claims that Kalshi’s event contracts on tribal lands violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. It sent the case back for the district court to weigh the remaining injunction factors. It rejected the tribes’ Lanham Act claim. | September 16, 2026: opinion. |
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| Kalshi Inc. v. Ho-Chunk Nation | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, No. 26-8020 | Kalshi’s petition for permission to appeal under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(b), docketed September 21, 2026. | September 21, 2026: petition docketed. |
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| KalshiEX, LLC v. Bird (Iowa) | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, No. 26-2874 | Kalshi’s appeal against Iowa officials, docketed September 17, 2026. | September 17, 2026: docketed. |
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| Third Circuit (New Jersey), decision April 6, 2026; New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to review it on September 2, 2026. |
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| Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee), opinion September 25, 2026. |
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| Ninth Circuit (Nevada), opinion August 28, 2026. |
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| Tenth Circuit (Utah), No. 26-4100; injunction pending appeal denied September 8, 2026; appeal undecided. |
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State enforcement and state-court actions
| Case | Court and docket | What the record shows | Latest entry we saw | Source and date checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCX LLC v. Wilson (Ohio) | U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio, No. 2:26-cv-01502 | Polymarket US’s suit against Ohio’s Attorney General and the members of the Ohio Casino Control Commission, filed October 16, 2026. The complaint says the Commission sent Polymarket US a letter on October 2, 2026 demanding that it stop offering sports-event contracts to people in Ohio without a Commission license. It asks the court to declare Ohio’s sports-gaming and gambling laws unconstitutional and preempted as applied to Polymarket US, and to bar the defendants from enforcing them. | October 23, 2026: orders on motions to appear pro hac vice. |
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- See the State action on the Arizona page.
- See the State action on the Connecticut page.
- See the State action on the Hawaii page.
- See the State action on the Illinois page.
- See the State action on the Kentucky page.
- See the State action on the Massachusetts page.
- See the State action on the Michigan page.
- See the State action on the Minnesota page.
- See the State action on the Missouri page.
- See the State action on the Nevada page.
- See the State action on the New Jersey page.
- See the State action on the New York page.
- See the State action on the Ohio page.
- See the State action on the Tennessee page.
- See the State action on the Utah page.
- See the State action on the Washington page.
- See the State action on the Wisconsin page.
CFTC rulemaking
March 16, 2026 — Advance notice of proposed rulemaking, “Prediction Markets” (RIN 3038-AF65). Comment period closed April 30, 2026.
- www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/FederalRegister/proposedrules/2026-05105.html · checked October 21, 2026
June 12, 2026 — Proposed rule, “Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations” (RIN 3038-AF65). It would set factors and a process for finding certain event contracts contrary to the public interest, and define “gaming.” Comments were due July 27, 2026. No final rule under this RIN as of October 21, 2026.
- www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/12/2026-11854/prediction-markets-public-interest-determinations · checked October 21, 2026
- www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9249-26 · checked October 21, 2026
October 19, 2026 — Proposed rule, “Further Definition of ‘Swap’—Inclusions” (RIN 3038-AF82; 91 FR 66022). It would further define the term “swap” to explicitly include event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, cultural, and weather-related events. Comments are due November 18, 2026.
- www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/19/2026-21377/further-definition-of-swap-inclusions · checked October 21, 2026
- www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9310-26 · checked October 21, 2026
October 19, 2026 — Interim final rule, “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ To Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products” (RIN 3038-AF81; 91 FR 65969). Effective October 19, 2026. It codifies the CFTC’s position that casino-style gambling products, including wagers placed on sportsbooks and casino games, are not swaps. The exclusion covers wagers offered by state- or tribe-licensed operators, regulated as gambling under state or tribal law, and not traded on an exchange or other multilateral market. Comments are due November 18, 2026.
Each row is dated. We add a case when we can open its docket or filing, and we update a row when the docket shows a new order.